House of cards

REVISED ... Election outcome ... Major parties bereft of ideas and inspiration ... Independents fill the void ... Will the Governor General draw constitutional inspiration from Jolly John Kerr? ... Polly Peck's special insights

GG BryceHow does the deck change now that it is likely Independent Andrew Wilkie will take Denison?

Tim Colebatch has the best analysis of what seats are still in doubt.

The most either side can hope for is 74 seats. It's more likely at the moment that the Coalition will get 74, and Labor 72.

However, the government could quite confidentantly rely pn Wilkie and the Green man from Melbourne, Adam Bandt, to keep it in office, if not in power.

In that event each of the major political blocks would have equal numbers. It's then back to the three agrarian socialist Independents to call the shots.

What's Queen Quentin going to do?

She'll ask PM Gillard to form a government and see how it goes on the floor of the house. On major issues like votes of confidence and Supply Bills my incredibly insightful assessment is that the three Independents will support her, at least for 18 months.

It will be hand-to-hand fighting to get through the minority government's legislation.

After that, Abbott and his motley crew are most likely to be given a turn.

This strategy would suit the Independents because they would not be tied and tarred by attachment to either side when they face their own electorates, which essentially are conservative bolt holes.

The important thing is not to listen to the sort of advice freely doled out by the likes of the Liberal's Gorgeous George Brandis.

Brandis was part of the ABC's election coverage on Saturday night where he made the premature claim that because the Coalition has secured more seats, more primary votes and more preferential votes it had the moral authority to claim government.

Tony Abbott bumped-up the figures a bit and claimed that half-a-million more Australians voted for the Coalition than for Labor - so he should be Prime Minister.

On this reasoning, Little Johnnie Howard should have handed the keys of The Lodge to Kim Beazley in 1998, when Labor won 52 percent of the vote and the Coalition 48 percent.

In fact, after distribution the Coalition is about 125,000 votes behind Labor overall.

The important thing is not moral authority, but numbers in the House of Representatives. They are entirely fluid at the moment, and even when the final tally of seats is known they will continue to be fluid.

For now, the control of parliament by two dinosaur political machines is suspended.

The Green member for Melbourne,  Adam Bandt, already has indicated that he would be more comfortable working with a Labor government.

Wilkie has not one iota of love for the Coalition (even though he was once a Liberal), after they leaked against him and accused him of being "unstable" after he resigned from the ONA and ran against Howard in Bennelong in 2004.

One thing is certain, both sides will be busily tearing up their election promises to accomodate the Independents.

Abbott would have to trash his health and broadband policies to win over Oakeshott and Windor. In fact, he would have to throw away his key policy - "pay back the debt".

A massive backflip on policies at this stage would do nothing for "stability and certainty".

In any event, Andrew Robb, the shadow finance spokesman, said that the Opposition would not budge on its broadband policy.

Abbott, with his eye on the prize, said he would be "pragmatic" about the NBN.

Shakiness and division are not confined to Labor.

Pragmatic Tony might think about wooing Adam Bandt with a gay weddings policy.

Then there is the comforting thought that Quentin could turn to "Sir" David Smith for advice.

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One of the underlying themes of the election was the quaint idea that it is somehow unconstitutional to depose an "elected Prime Minister".

This quasi-legal figment was flogged mercilessly by Brandis and Abbott.

Of course, Queenslanders may not like it because their beloved Kevvie was knifed, but as a legal notion it is sheer rubbish.

I can't remember conservatives being insensed when Billy McMahon knocked off elected PM John Gorton, or John Major deposed Margaret Thatcher, or when South Australia's Dean Brown was tossed out to make way for John Olsen.

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Abbott and rubbishWhat of poor Malcy Turnbull? 

Surely any lingering fantasies that he could return to the leadership of the Libs look more bleak than ever.

The Mad Monk is now a hero and the calculation that he would implode and bungle the campaign is in tatters.

That is not to say that he still doesn't have the potential to implode.

If Abbott had done badly the likely scenario for the Libs would have been Hockey as leader, subject to constant undermining by Turnbull, until Turnbull was installed only for him to be ousted a year later for lack of judgment and overreaching and then Kevin Andrews taking over as Leader of the Opposition.

Eeeek.

*   *   *

Various observers, subscribers, pundits and friends have offered these assessments in the wake of Saturday night.

The Liberals are adopting something of the style of Tea Party Republicans - small government, low taxes, forget about the environment, and turning away foreigners with brown skins and nasty religions.

This is the party of Hilux Man. A non-union tradesman who supports the abolition of fishery protection zones and has at least two vast flat screen TVs and several potentially obese children.

At the same time Abbott has tried to soften the party's edges with a new IR policy, paid parental leave and looking after the blue rinse set in the Adelaide Hills.

Labor has split into the browns and the greens and is now run by spin doctors and focus group obsessives. It has lost its way, as its traditional union base has slowly evaporated, except in the public services.

Now it doesn't really stand for anything.

Anyway, everyone hates Karl Bitar, Mark Arbib, Paul Howes and Bill Shorten.

Labor may go the way of the the Nationals.

The Independents are decentralists, who want a redistribution of government resources from metropolitan to regional centres.

The Greens will discover their fault lines once they hold the balance of power in the Senate. It won't be an easy ride for them and their vote will go back to around the five-six percent level.

The winners out of this election will be a carbon tax, decentralisation, gay weddings and, with any luck, parliamentary reform.

Polly Peck reporting ...